As we settle into the colder and darker days of winter, many of us find ourselves troubled by a growing sense of unease. The global challenges dominating the news, coupled with a polarising political atmosphere in the U.S. have added another layer of complexity to an already uncertain world.

However, research from 2005 suggests that a sense of unease is always with us. A publication by the National Science Foundation revealed that the average person has between 12,000 and 60,000 thoughts a day. While 95% of these thoughts are simply repetitions from the day before, they found a whopping 80% were negative! No wonder we worry. But while worry may feel uncomfortable and unproductive, it’s really your brain trying to be your bodyguard. A natural response to uncertainty. A reflection of our desire to adapt and improve. Importantly, the negative feeling of worry is deeply intertwined with a positive human trait: care. Worry and care are inseparable—one often exists because of the other. If you worry too much, it’s probably because you care deeply.

This constant undercurrent of worry/care not only shapes our personal lives but also our financial decisions. A deep sense of care can influence how one approaches investing. Studies have found that individuals who are primary caregivers often exhibit more risk-averse behaviour when it comes to financial decisions. For example, women, who have traditionally taken on caregiving roles, often prioritise stability and long-term security in their investment choices. This isn’t a weakness but a reflection of responsibility and concern for the well-being of those they care about.

But there is an important silver lining to worry. It plays a role in why stock markets generally rises over time. Analysts spend countless hours building models to estimate what a company’s share price should be. And they set target prices based on this research. Take Sainsbury’s, for example, a UK supermarket for our international readers (yes, I know!… Hi Jane). It trades on the stock market at 244p per share. Yet analysts’ target prices average 312p. This gap reflects the market’s mindset—its worry about what could go wrong. Imagine if 80% of our thoughts were positive. Perhaps Sainsbury’s would even trade above the 312p. Interestingly, of the over 1300 stocks we track, some 94.7% trade below their target prices. That’s a significant margin of error built into the market’s thinking.  Especially when things often turn out better than expected, not just worse.

Let’s be honest, it is worrying out there. But, as the research suggests, you have probably thought about the worst outcome already today – and yesterday, and the day before….   It seems the stock market has too. It therefore only needs an ‘okay’ world for the stock market to trundle along.

As for us individuals, as we all wrestle with our doom loop of negative thoughts, perhaps we should pay attention to another of Mark Twain’s quotes namely “The best way to cheer yourself up is to try to cheer somebody else up.” Now if we were all to do that…

Craig Harper, Managing Director